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What Is the Nankai Trough Megaquake? Japan’s Worst-Case Disaster Scenario

Japan faces a looming threat—the Nankai Trough megaquake, a massive earthquake predicted along a dangerous fault line. With warnings from a modern-day prophet and government disaster plans, Japan is racing against time to minimize destruction.

What Is the Nankai Trough Megaquake?
The Nankai Trough megaquake occurs along the Nankai megathrust, where the Philippine Sea Plate slides beneath the Eurasian Plate near Japan. Historically, these earthquakes strike every 90–200 years, often in pairs.

Past Disasters:
1854 Ansei-Tokai & Ansei-Nankai earthquakes (occurred one day apart).
1944 Tonankai & 1946 Nankaido earthquakes (another devastating pair).
At least 12 major quakes recorded in the last 1,300 years.

Worst-Case Scenario Predictions:
298,000 deaths (government estimate).
2.35 million buildings destroyed.
Tsunami waves three times taller than the 2011 Tohoku disaster.

Why Is This Important for Competitive Exams?
General Awareness (SSC, PSC): Questions on global disasters, tectonic movements, and disaster management.
Design & Architecture Exams (NID, NIFT, FDDI): Understanding earthquake-resistant infrastructure.
Geography & Current Affairs: Plate tectonics, Japan’s disaster preparedness, and climate-related risks.

How Japan is Preparing for the Megaquake
Japan’s government has updated its disaster preparedness plan with key measures:
✔ Earthquake-resistant housing in high-risk zones.
✔ Improved evacuation shelters, especially in tsunami-prone areas.
✔ Annual progress reviews with 200+ safety targets.
✔ Central government support for local disaster management.

Sample Questions & Answers for Competitive Exams
Q1: What is the Nankai Trough megaquake?
A1: A massive earthquake expected along the Nankai megathrust, where the Philippine Sea Plate subducts beneath the Eurasian Plate near Japan.
Q2: How often do Nankai Trough megaquakes occur?
A2: Every 90–200 years, often in pairs.
Q3: What was the worst-case death toll predicted by Japan’s government?
A3: Up to 298,000 deaths in a worst-case scenario.
Q4: How is Japan preparing for the Nankai Trough megaquake?
A4: By reinforcing buildings, improving evacuation shelters, and setting annual disaster preparedness targets.
Q5: Why is the Nankai Trough significant for geography exams?
A5: It’s a major tectonic boundary, helping students understand plate tectonics, earthquakes, and disaster management.